The world in 2050: Policy options to meet global challenges

Based on two studies addressing world development for the coming 50-100 years - the UN Millennium Assessment (MEA) and an analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) supporting the G8 Gleneagles plans (see the presentation) - a new DIE Discussion Paper provides a critical appraisal of the scenario studies and singles out factors which are important for future development policy.

The MEA study suggests four scenarios, described by their position in a 2x2 matrix with the characteristics pro-active / reactive policy and globalized / regionalized policy at the x-y axes. The scenarios explain the possible developments determined by the policy choices made until the year 2050 and beyond that until 2100. They identify different drivers which directly or indirectly influence future development.

They speak about the climate, plant nutrient use, land conversion, diseases and invasive species as having a direct effect on the scenarios. Further the demographic, economic and socio-political development as well as the scientific and technological progress is described as indirect factors. The MEA study makes it very clear that climate change is going to be the primary factor:

"given that climate change - which is primarily driven by energy-related Green House Gas emissions - is very likely to be the predominant force adversely affecting ecosystems over the course of the 21st century, discrete policy efforts to preserve ecosystems in the absence of decisive global climate change mitigation action would seem to be as useful as re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic."

All but one scenarios will bring considerable improvements for world climate with different effects on human welfare. However compared to the reference year 2000 they all expect continued loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystems. To name just a few figures dependent on the policy choices:

• demand for food crops is projected to grow by 75-85%
  
• water withdrawals increase by 20-85%
  

Continued conversions of ecosystems are consequently caused by the pressure to meet agricultural and/or infrastructural demands. Mostly affected will be developing countries, in particular tropical and sub-tropical regions, the study predicts.

"The combination of exposure to an already fragile environment, dominance of climate-sensitive sectors in economic activity and low autonomous adaptive capacity in these regions entail a high vulnerability to the harmful effects of global warming on agriculture production and food security, water resources, human health, physical infrastructure and ecosystems."

According to the author this requires the full integration of environmental concerns into the formulation of future development strategies. Nonetheless a recent WWF review of integrated water resource management in EC development programming showed that this is done on the level of policy formulation but is inadequately implemented in policy action. The message of the scenarios for policymakers is that although upcoming challenges are serious, policy options still exists.

"If decisive and proactive action is taken, the challenges are manageable without dramatic implications for growth aspirations of developing and developed countries. The task ahead for development policy is to assist in translating this message into concrete action."

By Martin Behrens

See the Euforic bookmarks on climate change and environment and development cooperation

See also our newsfeeds on water and sanition, energy and food security

The Heiligendamm Process and the reform of global governance

Considering the challenges the world is facing today, including the financial, energy and climate crises, there is an urgent need for an inclusive global governance structure with a high-level body fully representing the world population.

A new discussion paper by the German Development Institute looks at the 'Heiligendamm Process' as the starting point for further discussions on global governance reform. Further it offers different models for a future global governance architecture.

The Heiligendamm Process, which emerged from Germany's G8 Presidency in 2007, was an attempt to intensify dialogue with the new emerging actors, namely Mexico, China, India, South Africa and Brazil (referred to as G5). However it was seen as open process and not as a step towards enlargement, which was rejected especially by the USA and Japan.

According to the author the global economic crisis brought the enlargement-option back on the agenda:

"While this high-level dialogue [the Heiligendamm Process] was geared to an informal exchange of views and experiences as well as to confidence-building, the global financial crisis now calls for rapid action and hard-and-fast arrangements."

The Process is seen as success in terms of trust-building. It also helped to form a confident and pro-active G5, which even came up with concrete policy proposals during the recent G20 Summit in London. After the first phase of the Heiligendamm Process participants now need to decide where this governance model should be going to.

The author proposes a new out-ward looking process which includes other global governance structures and at the same time urges the G8 to explicitly deal with the enlargement issue. This discussion should also consider the role of the G20 which proved to be effective during the recent crisis.

by Martin Behrens

See the Euforic newsfeed and dossier on governance

Democracy promotion: No end of history

While democracy promotion became a 'Boom Industry' of International Cooperation in the 1990s, governance indicators show a negative global trend today. At the same time International Democracy Assistance is criticized for not showing measurable results.

A Briefing Paper of the German Development Institute looks at strategic challenges for Democracy Promotion and Assistance.

The authors come up with 10 recommendation:

1. Invest in research about the preconditions, catalysers and processes of democratization
2. Take regard of conflicting political targets
3. Ensure a coherent policy towards partners
4. Take regard of regional and local contexts
5. Take a strategic and long-term approach
6. Chose the right partners to support change
7. Be aware that the time of invention offers different opportunities, be flexible if change happens
   
8. Take the right measures at the right time (i.e. human rights before democratic elections)
9. Ensure coordination and synergies with other policy sectors
10. Take a holistic systemic approach for evaluation instead of looking only on project outputs

See the Euforic newsfeed and dossier on governance.

See also ICCO on Democratization and Peacebuilding

Reforming the EU's Aid Architecture and Management

According to a recent paper by the German Development Institute, the European Commission should not anymore be the main focus of reform in the EU aid architecture. Sven Grimm proposes to look more on the whole system, meaning not only aid administered by the Commission but to assess the entire EU aid system which includes the member states and the Commission. Grimm argues that the Commission went through an intense reform process but that the system as a whole still needs reform.

“…the bucket of EC aid appears to have been fixed and is no longer leaking profusely. However, if one looks at the overall system of EU external relations with developing countries, there is not just one bucket (the Commission), but at least 27 more (the member states). And the question to be asked is: Given this line of buckets – all shaped differently, with different size and made of different material – can the EU deliver effectively the way it is organized at the moment?”

According to the author, challenges ahead which will require close coordination with the EC aid system include the shift to partner country level ownership as demanded by the Paris Declaration, the future EC aid budget negotiations, the division of labour between the EU 27 +1 as well as the yet unknown consequences of the Lisbon treaty reforms regarding EU development policy.

by Martin Behrens

See the Euforic newsfeed on EU cooperation.

See also the Whither EC Aid Project on the future of EU Development Cooperation.